WSJ: Apple Education Sales Falling - "A Loss is Likely"


Despite the $32 million profit Apple reported Tuesday, the
Wall Street Journal [paid subscription required] raises questions about Apple's critical education market position.

In his conference call Tuesday, Apple CFO Fred Anderson noted a 7% shortfall in sales forecasts, which means a 17% overall fall in education sales on a year-over-year basis.

However, Anderson did note that Apple had "held its market share" in education, despite the falls. Education sales as a whole have been much slower in 2002.

The WSJ article also notes that Anderson did not detail the one-off charges Apple would need to take for its work force reductions in Sacramento, as well as it the write-offs due to its investments in Earthlink and Akamai, both of which have experienced substantial falls in their share prices.

With a 48% fall in quarterrly profits, the Wall Street Journal argues that "a loss is likely" for the next quarter.

In a related WSJ article, one analyst warns that Apple's Retail Store strategy is a "mistake", and that its costs will not be recouped through sales.

Analysis: There are two ways of looking at this: first that all is doom and gloom; secoind, that Apple, despite its small market share, still makes a reasonable profit - with Dell's PC division about the only other one doing it - while everyone else, from Gateway to IBM takes horrendous losses. There message here is that Macs still sell, even in the worst downturn since '91-92.

On the Apple Retail issue, if anyone can do retail, it's Apple. Even if Apple Retail turns out to be a minor loss leader, it gives Apple a presence and a visibility that it otherwise wouldn't have. Plus, it puts paid to that "Are they still in business?" idiocy that still crops up too often.

And, in the context of the 'Swirchers' campaign, there is no better showcase for Apple's products. You want to go back to the CompUSA/Sears/Best Buy model of retailing?

I thought not.