'On a shelf somewhere' [updated]
January 25th 2008
News.com is running an analysis piece on the mystery of the unaccounted for iPhones.
The gist of the quandary is this:
• Apple says it sold 3.7 million in '07
• AT&T says it activated 2 million in '07
• Europe can account for about 400k
• Unlockers might account for 720K
• Leaving 600k units (give or take) unaccounted for
So, where are all of those iPhones?
Toni Sacconaghi, a financial analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein, arrives at these conclusions:
Excluding Apple's own stores, there are about 4,400 total iPhone distribution points worldwide, suggesting each had more than 150 units of channel inventory at the beginning of this year. We believe channel inventory likely built even more in the first few weeks of 2008, given Apple continued to ship iPhones at a high run rate.
Could this be possible? That more than 600,000 iPhones are 'sitting on a shelf somewhere'?
[update]--Silicon Alley Insider claims there's no mystery at all. They say it's just a matter of accounting semantics:
How'd we figure it out? By listening to AT&T's Q4 earnings call, where the company explained that it has phones it bought from Apple but had yet to sell itself in its inventory.
That sounds reasonable enough, but it's still a huge number of iPhones that haven't been sold...
What's your take?
