45m US iPhones in '09?!?
March 31st 2008
Quoting Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, The Standard says that Apple will sell 45-million iPhones in 2009 in the US alone.
And, here's why he (still) thinks Apple can hit that number:
• Release a new 3G iPhone within the next 3 to 6 months
• Come out with a lower-priced iPhone model ($2~300)
• Enter new crucial new markets
• Add new features to the device, such as games and shopping
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Essentially, Munster's using the iPod growth curve to extrapolate future iPhone sales. Though perhaps not a statistically sound model, it has a certain appeal.
Look at that China figure--Whoa!
Last week Bank of America analyst Scott Craig more than doubled his iPhone sales estimate in saying he believes Apple will produce 11-million 3G handset in the third quarter. That's in addition to the 8-million v1.0 units he said Apple would sell this year.
Editor's note: 45-million units in the US alone? The phrase "irrational exuberance" comes to mind.
Still, although it's clear Munster's reaching a bit, there's an appeal and perhaps even logic to his way of thinking...
What's your take?
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