Munster [again] predicts iPhone refresh
April 4th 2008
AppleInsider is reporting that Piper Jaffary's Gene Munster has confirmed an iPhone price reduction by T-Mobile Germany which he believes is a move to clear stock ahead of a product refresh.
Considering that T-Mobile Germany's special pricing ends on June 30, he may be onto something.
"In the US, Apple's supply of iPhones continues to be limited, but European carriers appear to be overstocked," said Munster. "These data points lead us to believe Apple will launch a new iPhone in the US in June at the latest, with a European launch shortly thereafter.
Mac OS X v10.5 Leopard now only $109.98! Order NOW!
"This type of channel control [Ed--managed shortage] is typical of Apple ahead of new products," he continued. "In Europe, the opposite story seems to point to the same conclusion. Apple's carrier partners are a completely separate channel from its own retail stores, and the carrier partners appear to be overstocked with iPhones."
Earlier in the week Munster caused quite an uproar when he said the current iPhone shortage is a sure sign (ie 80% sure) that Apple's readying a refresh, which the world + dog believed meant the 3G iPhone was imminent (see Editor's note below).
Munster has also predicted that Apple will sell 45-million iPhones in the US alone next year.
Editor's note: The elephant in the room is, of course, FCC approval, which Apple will need before it can market and sell a 3G iPhone. The approval process takes 60 to 90 days.
The obvious counterpoint is that Apple isn't planning to launch the 3G iPhone at the end of June or early July, and will instead release a variant of the current product.
Lastly, Munster's rapid-fire and seemingly over-the-top pronouncements make appear a bit strident, almost prophetic.
Perhaps our hunger to know anything and everything about the iPhone cause the rest of us to read too much into what he's saying...
What's your take?
Exclusive offer. Limited time only.
